Market Analysis
Understanding the Australian retail market
Understand Australian retail measures, including household spending, industry turnover, retailer revenue, category scope and price-adjusted growth.
In the Australian retail market, household spending, retail-business turnover and a retailer’s reported revenue measure different things. Before comparing them, check the category, geography, period and price basis.
The Monthly Household Spending Indicator (MHSI) aligns as closely as possible with Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE), the National Accounts household-consumption concept. HFCE covers Australian resident households’ spending on goods and services for their own non-commercial use, recorded in the period of consumption when that differs from the payment period.
Choose a measure
| Question | Useful starting point | What it cannot establish alone |
|---|---|---|
| What are households spending on? | Household spending by product or service category | Which retailer received the spending |
| How are retail businesses trading? | Turnover or sales for a defined industry | Whether growth came from prices or volume |
| How is one retailer performing? | Its disclosed revenue and operating measures | Whether its result represents the market |
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Monthly Household Spending Indicator covers selected categories of household consumption. The former Retail Trade publication measured turnover at retail businesses — a different measure of activity. Neither measures every transaction in the Australian economy.
The MHSI combines aggregated, de-identified bank card transactions from participating banks with supermarket transactions and new vehicle sales data. The ABS makes coverage adjustments to align these sources with the HFCE concept and benchmarks the indicator to annual HFCE, with monthly adjustments for data gaps such as cash spending.
The MHSI sources do not capture all HFCE. They do not capture Australian residents’ spending on goods and services offered outside Australia, or expenditure by resident non-profit institutions serving households, which HFCE includes.
Household Spending vs Retail Business Turnover: Key Differences
- MeasureHousehold Spending (MHSI)
- What it measuresAustralian resident households’ spending on goods and services for non-commercial use, recorded at time of consumption
- Data sourcesDe-identified bank card transactions, supermarket sales, new vehicle sales
- CoverageDoes not include spending outside Australia or by non-profit institutions serving households
- MeasureRetail Business Turnover (Former *Retail Trade* publication)
- What it measuresTurnover from retail industry activities including online, wholesale, repairs, meals, hiring, and agency commissions
- CoverageExcludes micro non-employing and public sector businesses; includes GST from July 2000
Top 5 Retail Product Categories by Household Spending (MHSI)
- Food and Non-Alcoholic BeveragesHighest share of household spending
- Housing and UtilitiesIncludes electricity, gas, water, rent — significant ongoing cost
- TransportIncludes fuel, vehicle purchases, maintenance
- Health CareIncludes pharmacy, medical services, insurance
- Recreation and CultureIncludes entertainment, travel, sports equipment
Check which ABS series you have
The ABS ended its Retail Trade, Australia publication after the June 2025 reference period. Historical releases remain available, but the former business survey and newer indicators have different sources and coverage.
Business Indicators, Australia is another source of quarterly estimates of income from sales of goods and services. The surveys covered different business populations, so a difference between their totals is not by itself evidence of changing demand. Record the publication and table behind any figure labelled “retail sales”.
The former Retail Business Survey collected data monthly, mainly by telephone interview, from about 700 large businesses and a sample of about 2,700 smaller businesses. Large businesses contributed approximately 69% of the total turnover estimate. Those figures describe the former survey’s collection and coverage, not the current experimental estimates.
Business Indicators, Australia draws on the ABS Business Register, primarily based on ABN registrations to the Australian Business Register. Its statistics exclude micro non-employing businesses and public sector businesses, so its population is not interchangeable with the former retail survey’s employing-business coverage.
Key Changes in Australian Retail Data Reporting
- June 2025ABS ceased publication of the *Retail Trade, Australia* series after this reference period
- August 2026Updated methodology for the Monthly Household Spending Indicator (MHSI) published
- June 2026Updated methodology for *Business Indicators, Australia* released
- January 2024Previous methodology for *Retail Trade* publication still referenced for historical data
Set the boundary of retail
An industry category groups businesses by their main activity; a product category groups what households bought. A supermarket’s turnover includes products beyond food, while food can be bought from several types of business. Industry turnover and household spending on food should not be treated as the same series.
The former Retail Trade publication classified estimates by retail industry group and subgroup, with included industries defined by reference to ANZSIC. Read the definition of the particular table before combining categories or comparing totals.
The former Retail Trade turnover measure was broader than retail sales alone. It included online and wholesale sales, takings from repairs, meals and hiring of goods, and commissions from agency activity; GST was included from July 2000. These components are part of the measure’s definition, so its label should not be read as a count of sales through retail tills only.
Key ABS Retail Measures: Scope and Coverage
- MHSI CoverageHousehold final consumption expenditure (HFCE) concept, adjusted for cash spending gaps
- Former Retail Trade CoverageIncludes online, wholesale, repairs, meals, hiring, agency commissions — GST included from July 2000
- Business Indicators PopulationBased on ABN registrations; excludes micro non-employing and public sector businesses
- ANZSIC ReferenceUsed to define retail industry groups and subgroups in former *Retail Trade* series
Read growth carefully
Align the geography, dates and adjustment basis. An original monthly figure and a seasonally adjusted figure answer different questions. Check for revisions or method changes before describing a movement as a lasting trend. A national result can also conceal different category or state results.
Current-price spending can rise because prices rise, measured volume rises or the mix changes. The ABS publishes monthly MHSI data and quarterly chain-volume measures for available categories and geographies. Chain volume removes the direct effects of price changes from an aggregate; it does not count one retailer’s units or explain customers’ motives.
Pros and Cons of Using MHSI vs. Former Retail Trade Data
- Pros of MHSIClosely aligned with HFCE, captures actual household consumption timing, uses real-time transaction data
- Cons of MHSIDoes not capture all HFCE (e.g., non-profit institutions, overseas spending), relies on sampling and adjustments
- Pros of Former Retail TradeComprehensive coverage of retail industry activities including non-till transactions, consistent historical series
State the conclusion’s limit
A useful market summary names the measure, population, category, geography, dates and price basis, then states what the result cannot establish. Growth in household spending on a product category does not show that every retailer in that category grew. A retailer’s revenue growth does not prove that Australians bought more units.
In this guide
- Retail sales versus retailer revenue: reading the measuresUnderstand why Australian industry turnover, a retailer’s sales measure and reported revenue can differ, and how to compare them.
- Comparing retail categories using consistent definitionsCompare Australian retail categories by checking business versus product definitions, category boundaries and changes between ABS series.
- Separating nominal sales growth from changing pricesRead Australian current-price spending beside matching volume measures without mistaking higher spending for more units sold.
